What to Expect from Tomorrow's CIT Conference on IEEPA Refunds (March 6, 2026)

⚡ Late-Breaking: What We Learned This Evening

Several significant developments emerged in the hours before tomorrow's conference. Each one changes the calculus for importers in different ways.

1. Government Confirms It Will Pay Interest — In Writing

In a written submission ahead of tomorrow's conference, government counsel formally confirmed that the United States will pay interest on any IEEPA refunds it is required to provide. This is significant for two reasons.

First, it removes any ambiguity about the government's legal obligation under 28 USC 2411. Second — and more strategically — it creates a powerful financial incentive for Treasury to process refunds quickly. Every month of delay adds millions to the government's total liability. Interest doesn't stop accruing while the lawyers argue.

For importers: if you paid $1 million in IEEPA tariffs in mid-2025, at a ~4.5% statutory rate, you're earning roughly $45,000/year in interest while you wait. That's not nothing — and it's why getting your documentation organized now matters.

2. How CIT Justified Issuing a Universal Injunction

A key legal question heading into tomorrow is whether Judge Eaton's universal refund order — covering ALL importers, not just case plaintiffs — can survive appellate scrutiny. The government has argued that universal injunctions are improper, pointing to the Supreme Court's CASA v. Trump decision limiting nationwide injunctions.

Judge Eaton's order distinguishes CASA on a straightforward ground: the Court of International Trade is different. Unlike a federal district court issuing a nationwide injunction, CIT has exclusive national jurisdiction over customs and trade matters. There is no other court where an importer could sue. When CIT rules, its rulings necessarily apply nationally — that's the point of a specialized court with exclusive jurisdiction. A universal remedy from CIT isn't an overreach; it's the expected scope of a court built to resolve trade disputes for the entire country.

This distinction will be tested if the government appeals, but it's a legally coherent argument that gives the order real staying power.

3. RSM's ACE Report Playbook: Run This Tonight

RSM, one of the largest accounting and advisory firms serving mid-market importers, published an importer action guide tonight with a specific, immediately actionable step: run your ACE report right now.

ACE (Automated Commercial Environment) is CBP's trade data system. Your ACE report will show every entry you filed with IEEPA tariff classifications. RSM specifically flagged two HTS code ranges to pull:

• • 9903.01.xx — China fentanyl emergency tariffs
• • 9903.02.xx — Reciprocal (Liberation Day) tariffs

Filter your entries for February 4, 2025 through February 24, 2026. The output is your refund universe — every entry, every dollar of IEEPA exposure, in one report. CBP's refund procedures will almost certainly use this data as the basis for processing. Getting your ACE report now means you're ready to respond the moment procedures are announced.

If you don't have ACE access, your customs broker does. Call them tonight.

4. Snell & Wilmer Warning: Watch for Downstream Claim Demands

Law firm Snell & Wilmer issued a memo tonight with a warning that many importers haven't thought through: importers of record may face claim demands from the end-users and customers who actually absorbed the tariff costs downstream.

Here's the issue. Many importers passed IEEPA tariffs through to customers as explicit line items on invoices — a surcharge labeled “IEEPA tariff” or “customs duty.” Those customers paid the economic cost of the tariff, not the importer. When the refund arrives, those customers may argue the importer is holding their money — and demand it back.

The legal basis for such claims is unsettled, but the risk is real, especially for:

• • Importers who explicitly line-itemed IEEPA tariffs on customer invoices
• • Importers with contract language tying pricing to customs duty rates
• • Importers with high-volume, long-term supply relationships where tariffs were a visible pass-through

Practical step: Before the refund arrives, review your sales contracts and invoice history. If you passed tariffs through as explicit line items, flag this with your legal counsel now. You want a position ready before customers come asking.

5. Chang Law Group: CIT Filing Costs and Deadlines

Chang Law Group published a practical cost and deadline guide for importers considering direct CIT filings — the path the government says is required for individual refunds. Key figures from their guide:

• • CIT filing fees run significantly higher than CBP protest fees
• • Deadlines for preserving CIT claims are tied to liquidation dates of individual entries
• • Importers with unliquidated entries may have more flexibility; liquidated entries are time-sensitive
• • For small-to-mid importers, the economics of individual CIT filings often don't pencil unless the claim is large

This reinforces why tomorrow's conference outcome matters so much. If Judge Eaton confirms automatic refunds for all importers, the cost and deadline question becomes moot. If the government prevails and individual filings are required, importers need to move fast — and understand the economics before committing to litigation.

6. Atmus Filtration's Exposure: ~$11 Million

CNBC confirmed tonight that Atmus Filtration — the plaintiff in Atmus Filtration v. United States (1:26-cv-01259-RKE), the case at the center of tomorrow's proceedings — paid approximately $11 million in IEEPA tariffs.

That figure provides useful context. Atmus is a mid-size industrial filtration manufacturer, not a mega-importer. An $11 million IEEPA exposure at their scale suggests the aggregate across all U.S. importers is very much in the $130-175 billion range that's been widely cited. It also illustrates why this fight matters to companies well below the Fortune 500 level — $11 million is real money, and the refund would be material.

What Tomorrow's Conference Actually IS

Tomorrow's March 6 conference is not a hearing where the government can argue against IEEPA refunds — that legal battle ended February 20 when the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump. Instead, this is a closed conference where government counsel must present CBP's concrete plan for processing the largest tariff refund in U.S. history.

Judge Richard Eaton — designated as the sole CIT judge for all IEEPA cases — ordered this conference after CBP failed to implement the Supreme Court ruling for two weeks. His March 4 order requiring CBP to refund ALL IEEPA tariffs and stop calculating them on customs paperwork was just the opening move. Tomorrow's conference is where the rubber meets the road.

The government must present:

• • Detailed refund procedures: Forms, deadlines, submission requirements
• • Processing timeline: How quickly CBP can identify and refund IEEPA payments
• • Administrative structure: Whether refunds flow through protests or new mechanisms
• • Interest calculations: How CBP will calculate and pay interest on delayed refunds
• • Resource allocation: Staffing and systems to handle 100,000+ refund claims

The conference is closed because it involves sensitive discussions about CBP's internal procedures and capacity constraints. However, Judge Eaton has indicated that a public order containing the refund framework will be issued immediately afterward — likely March 7 or 8.

What to Watch For: The Five Critical Outcomes

While importers can't attend tomorrow's closed conference, five key outcomes will determine how quickly you get your refund:

1. CBP's Processing Timeline Commitment

The most critical question is whether CBP commits to a realistic processing timeline or asks for excessive delays. Based on agency capacity and political pressure, watch for:

• • Best case: 90-day processing for straightforward claims, 180 days for complex cases
• • Realistic case: 6 months for most claims, 12 months for disputed amounts
• • Red flag: CBP asks for 18-24 months, indicating potential stalling

2. Whether the Government Signals Appeal Intent

While legally difficult given the Supreme Court's clear ruling, the government could still appeal Judge Eaton's universal refund order. Watch for signals like:

• • Requests to “stay implementation pending further review”
• • Arguments that the order exceeds judicial authority
• • Suggestions that individual lawsuits are still required
• • Demands for “emergency review” by the Federal Circuit

Any appeal would add 12-24 months to the refund timeline, making it the worst-case scenario for importers.

3. Refund Methodology and Documentation Requirements

CBP will propose specific procedures for proving IEEPA exposure and calculating refund amounts. Key details include:

• • What documentation importers must provide (entry summaries, payment records, etc.)
• • Whether CBP's own records are sufficient for most claims
• • How interest calculations will work and what rate applies
• • Procedures for disputed claims and appeals

4. Administrative Channel: Protests vs. New System

A critical procedural question is whether refunds flow through existing CBP protest mechanisms (19 USC 1514) or require new administrative systems. This affects:

• • Timeline: Protests have established deadlines but may be slower
• • Fees: Protest filing fees vs. potential new processing fees
• • Legal rights: Appeal procedures and judicial review options

5. Judge Eaton's Enforcement Mechanism

Most importantly, watch for how Judge Eaton plans to enforce CBP compliance. Options include:

• • Mandatory reporting: Regular status updates from CBP on processing volume
• • Contempt authority: Power to hold CBP officials in contempt for delays
• • Third-party oversight: Court-appointed monitors to track compliance
• • Alternative remedies: Direct judicial orders for specific refund payments

What Importers Should Do RIGHT NOW

Don't wait for tomorrow's conference results. The importers who act today will be first in line when CBP's refund procedures launch. Here's your action plan:

1. Document Every IEEPA Payment TONIGHT

CBP's refund procedures will almost certainly require proof of IEEPA tariff payments. Start gathering documentation immediately:

• • Entry summaries showing IEEPA tariff line items (Feb 2025 - Feb 2026)
• • CBP payment confirmations and account statements
• • Customs broker invoices itemizing IEEPA charges
• • Bank records showing tariff payments to CBP
• • Any CBP notices referencing IEEPA tariffs on your entries

2. File Protective CBP Protests If You Haven't

While Judge Eaton's universal remedy eliminates the need for individual lawsuits, filing protective protests under 19 USC 1514 creates an additional safety net and formal record. Many importers are filing “protective protests” covering all IEEPA entries with language like:

“Protective protest for all entries subject to IEEPA tariffs imposed February 4, 2025 through February 24, 2026, which were struck down by the Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump. Refund with interest requested pursuant to CIT universal remedy order.”

Filing costs are minimal ($25 per protest entry number) and provides independent legal protection if the universal remedy faces any challenges.

3. Engage Your Customs Broker Immediately

Your customs broker will be central to the refund process and likely has the most complete records of your IEEPA exposure. Contact them today to:

• • Confirm they have complete IEEPA tariff records for February 2025 - February 2026
• • Understand their fees for refund processing assistance
• • Discuss timeline for pulling together required documentation
• • Ensure they're monitoring CBP guidance and procedural changes

4. Calculate Your Total Exposure With Interest

Run comprehensive calculations including interest under 28 USC 2411. The government owes interest on refunds, and over 13+ months, this can be substantial:

• • Total IEEPA tariffs paid (Feb 4, 2025 - Feb 24, 2026)
• • Interest from payment dates to present (likely 4-5% annually)
• • Projected additional interest through actual refund date
• • Administrative costs and broker fees incurred

5. Set Up Real-Time Monitoring

CBP will issue operational guidance immediately after tomorrow's conference. Set up alerts for:

• • CBP CSMS messages (Cargo Systems Messaging Service)
• • Federal Register notices on refund procedures
• • Trade association updates (especially NCBFAA, AAEI)
• • CIT docket updates on Judge Eaton's orders

Likely Government Arguments Tomorrow

While the government can't argue against refunds legally, expect them to push for maximum processing time and administrative complexity:

1. Administrative Burden Arguments

CBP will likely argue that processing 100,000+ refund claims requires extensive new systems and staffing. Expect arguments about:

• • Need for new IT systems to identify IEEPA entries
• • Staff training requirements for refund processing
• • Verification procedures to prevent fraud
• • Coordination with Treasury for fund transfers

These are legitimate concerns but shouldn't justify excessive delays given CBP's existing capacity and the clear legal mandate.

2. Need for More Time

Don't be surprised if CBP asks for 12-18 months to “properly implement” refund procedures. This is a delay tactic. The agency has had 13 months to prepare for this possibility and detailed records of every IEEPA collection.

3. Potential Appeal Strategy

While legally weak, the government may preserve rights to appeal by arguing that Judge Eaton's universal remedy exceeds court authority or conflicts with administrative law principles. This is primarily a negotiating position to extract concessions on timeline.

4. Documentation and Verification Requirements

Expect the government to propose extensive documentation requirements, ostensibly to prevent fraud but actually to slow processing. Common tactics include:

• • Requiring original CBP documents rather than accepting electronic records
• • Demanding notarized attestations from importers
• • Insisting on third-party audits for large claims
• • Creating multiple review layers for approval

Timeline Scenarios: Best Case to Worst Case

Based on tomorrow's conference outcomes and government cooperation, here are the realistic timeline scenarios:

Best Case: Refunds by Q3 2026

Assumes: CBP cooperation, streamlined procedures, no appeals

• • March 7-8: Judge Eaton issues detailed refund procedures
• • March 15: CBP launches refund application system
• • April-May: Large, straightforward claims processed first
• • June-July: Mid-size claims completed
• • August-September: Complex and disputed claims resolved

Total refunds completed: Q3 2026 (6-7 months from conference)

Realistic Case: Most Refunds by End of 2026

Assumes: CBP administrative delays but no major appeals

• • March-April: Extended negotiations over procedures
• • May-June: CBP system launch and early processing
• • July-October: Bulk refund processing
• • November-December: Complex cases and appeals

Total refunds completed: Q4 2026/Q1 2027 (9-12 months from conference)

Worst Case: 2+ Years if Government Appeals

Assumes: Government appeals universal remedy, Federal Circuit review

• • March-April: Government appeals Judge Eaton's order
• • May-December 2026: Federal Circuit briefing and argument
• • 2027: Federal Circuit ruling, possible Supreme Court petition
• • 2028: Final resolution and refund processing

Total refunds completed: 2028 (24+ months from conference)

Why Tomorrow Matters: The Decisive Moment

Tomorrow's conference represents the decisive moment in the $130-175 billion IEEPA refund saga. Here's why:

Legal clarity is complete. The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. The Federal Circuit denied government delays. Judge Eaton ordered universal refunds. The only remaining question is implementation logistics.

Political pressure is mounting. Congressional Democrats introduced refund legislation. Industry litigation is proliferating. Media coverage is intensifying. The administration can't withhold refunds while collecting new tariffs under Section 122.

Economic incentives align. Interest costs make delays expensive for the government. Quick processing minimizes Treasury's total refund liability.

Administrative capacity exists. CBP has detailed records of every IEEPA collection and existing systems for processing refunds. The agency just needs judicial pressure to act.

The Bottom Line: Be Ready

Tomorrow's conference will determine whether IEEPA refunds happen in 6 months or 2 years. Either way, the importers who get paid first will be those who have their documentation organized and respond quickly to CBP's procedures.

Don't wait for the conference results. Start gathering your IEEPA payment records tonight. File protective protests if you haven't. Engage your customs broker immediately. Calculate your total exposure with interest.

The $130-175 billion refund is coming. The only question is whether you're ready when it arrives.