SCOTUS ruled February 20, 2026 — Updated post-presser

What Is Your Tariff Refund
Claim Worth?

The Supreme Court struck down $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs. If you're an importer with a claim, you need to know its value — whether you're holding, selling, or negotiating.

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Client-side calculations·Your data never leaves your browser·Updated as facts change
$175B
Potential Refunds
Feb 20, 2026
Ruling Date
Know Your Number
Before You Sell

What Happened

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. The ruling strikes down all IEEPA-based tariffs — including those on China, Canada, Mexico, and the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates $175 billion in potential refund liability. However, the Court did not explicitly order refunds — it remanded to the Court of International Trade (CIT) to address remedy.

Hours after the ruling, President Trump held a press conference stating his administration would litigate refunds for "2 to 5 years" and simultaneously signed executive orders imposing replacement tariffs under Section 122 and initiating Section 301 investigations. These new tariffs are prospective only — they do not affect the obligation to refund past IEEPA collections.

How It Works

Interactive Calculator

Enter your claim details. Get probability-weighted expected value instantly.

Sensitivity Analysis

See how your claim value changes across recovery rates, timing, and discount rates.

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Updated Analysis

Pro subscribers receive updates as CIT proceedings, congressional action, and CBP guidance unfold.

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  • 7-scenario probability model
  • Sensitivity analysis (recovery × timing × rate)
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who built this?
A finance professional with private equity and restructuring experience. The model uses standard NPV and decision-tree methodology applied to the specific legal and political landscape of the IEEPA ruling.
Is my data safe?
Yes. All calculations run entirely in your web browser using client-side JavaScript. We never see, store, or transmit your claim details. There is no database, no tracking of your inputs.
Is this legal or financial advice?
No. TariffRefundIQ provides analytical frameworks for educational purposes. The probability estimates and scenarios are opinions, not guarantees. Always consult qualified legal and financial counsel before making decisions.
How are the probabilities determined?
Probabilities reflect analysis of the legal ruling, political dynamics (including the administration's stated response), historical precedent for government refund mechanisms, and the practical challenges of processing $175B in claims. See our Methodology page for details.
Will this be updated?
Yes. Pro tier subscribers receive 6 months of updates as the situation evolves — CIT proceedings, congressional action, CBP guidance, and any changes to the probability landscape.