The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, creating up to $166 billion in potential refund claims — the largest customs refund event in American history. Use this calculator to estimate the expected value of your claim based on filing status, entry liquidation, cost of capital, and seven probability-weighted legal scenarios.
All calculations run entirely in your browser. Your financial data never leaves your device. Adjust scenario probabilities, compare third-party offers, and get a data-driven hold-vs-sell recommendation.
Any importer of record who paid duties under IEEPA tariffs (April 2025 – February 2026) may be eligible. Eligibility is strongest for entries that remain unliquidated or where a timely protest (19 USC §1514) or 28 USC §1581(i) court action was filed. Importers who took no action may still recover through new litigation, though at a discount.
Enter your total IEEPA duty payments (claim face value), the percentage of entries still unliquidated, your filing status, and your cost of capital into the calculator above. Our model applies probability-weighted scenarios — from full recovery to political haircut — and discounts future cash flows to give you an expected present value.
The Court of International Trade is setting the refund framework in Spring 2026. Fast-track refunds (unliquidated entries with active litigation) may arrive within 30–90 days of the CIT order. Protested liquidated entries could take 3–9 months. Unprotested entries requiring new court filings may take 12–24 months.
For liquidated entries, yes — a timely protest under 19 USC §1514 (180-day window) or a court action under 28 USC §1581(i) is required to preserve your refund rights. For unliquidated entries, CBP can administratively correct the duty assessment without a protest, but filing strengthens your position.
It depends on your cost of capital and liquidity needs. Our calculator computes a breakeven offer price — any offer above the expected value suggests selling; below it, holding is better. Toggle "I need cash now" to adjust the threshold for importers who prioritize immediate liquidity over maximum recovery.
Eligibility Screener
Check if your imports qualify for a refund
Refund Impact Estimator
Estimate economic impact on your business
Quick Refund Calculator
Fast estimate of gross refund amount
Reciprocal Tariff Calculator
Country-by-country tariff rate lookup
Landed Cost Calculator
All-in import cost with duties and freight
Eligibility Guide
Full guide to IEEPA refund qualification