Updated: Why You Should Almost Certainly NOT Sell Your IEEPA Refund Claim Right Now

What Changed This Week

In five days, the three biggest remaining risks to your refund were eliminated or dramatically reduced:

The Math Has Flipped

In our original analysis, we identified three variables that determine whether to sell: probability of recovery, recovery rate, and timing. Here’s how each has changed:

When the risk was real — uncertain litigation outcome, potential multi-year timeline, individual lawsuits required — a 30–40% discount to cash out early was a rational trade. A claim buyer offering 65¢ on the dollar was paying you for certainty you didn’t have.

That uncertainty has largely evaporated. You now have near-certainty of full recovery, with interest, in months rather than years, with minimal effort required. The risk premium that justified selling has collapsed — but we guarantee claim buyers haven’t adjusted their offers accordingly.

The Implied Cost of Selling Today

Let’s put real numbers on it. Say your claim is $1 million in IEEPA duties paid.

That’s not a financing decision. That’s loan shark economics. Unless you are genuinely unable to survive 3–6 months without that cash, this trade destroys value.

The Remaining Risks (Because They Do Exist)

We’re not saying the risk is zero. There are still tail risks:

• • DOJ appeal of Eaton’s order: Likely, but the Federal Circuit already denied their delay unanimously. A stay is unlikely when every court — SCOTUS, Federal Circuit, CIT — has ruled against the government.
• • CBP technical delays: The 45-day timeline could slip. ACE system modifications could take longer. But the obligation doesn’t go away — it just pushes the cash date.
• • Entries with liquidation complications: If your entries liquidated more than 90 days ago without a protest, your path is more complex. Eaton addressed this — ordering reliquidation — but implementation details matter. This is the one scenario where legal counsel is essential.
• • Congressional intervention: Theoretically, Congress could pass legislation to block refunds. In practice, this would require bipartisan support to defy a Supreme Court ruling. Probability: very low.

None of these risks justify a 25–35% haircut on a 3–6 month timeline. They might justify a 5–10% discount if you’re extremely risk-averse. But no serious financial analysis supports selling at the prices claim buyers are currently offering.

Who Should Still Consider Selling

There are narrow circumstances where selling still makes sense:

• • Genuine distress: If you cannot make payroll, rent, or debt payments without the refund cash, selling is rational. Avoiding bankruptcy has infinite value.
• • Complicated entry status: If most of your entries liquidated before the key dates and you didn’t file protests, the refund path is less certain. A discounted sale may still be rational.
• • Not enrolled in ACE Portal/ACH: If you cannot or will not comply with CBP’s electronic refund requirements (ACE Portal enrollment + ACH banking details), you literally cannot receive the refund. Fix this first — but if you can’t, selling is a reasonable alternative.
• • Very small claims: If your total refund is under $10,000 and the administrative overhead feels disproportionate, a clean sale may be pragmatic.

What You Should Do Instead

1. Enroll in the ACE Portal immediately. CBP will only issue refunds electronically to enrolled importers. This is non-negotiable. Get started here.
2. Submit your ACH banking details. As of February 6, 2026, CBP requires ACH enrollment for all refund payments. No ACH = no refund.
3. Pull your ACE report. Identify all entries with HTS codes beginning with 9903.01 (IEEPA tariff-related). Know exactly what you’re owed.
4. Check liquidation status. For entries liquidated more than 90 days ago, consult a trade attorney about preserving your rights through a CIT filing.
5. Wait. The hardest part. But the math is clear: patience is worth 25–35% of your claim value right now.

The Big Picture

Claim buyers are in the business of buying uncertainty at a discount. That’s their entire model — and it works when the uncertainty is real. Two weeks ago, it was. Today, it isn’t.

The Supreme Court said the tariffs are illegal. The Federal Circuit said “refund forthwith.” The CIT said every importer gets refunded. CBP itself said it will build the tech in 45 days. There are $166 billion on the table, and every branch of government that matters has said it’s coming back.

If someone offers to buy your claim at 70 cents on the dollar this week, they’re counting on you not knowing what happened this week. Now you do.