Should You Sell Your Tariff Refund Claim or Hold? A Framework

Your Claim Is an Asset

If you paid IEEPA tariffs and have filed suit or protest, you own a contingent financial asset — the right to receive a refund from the U.S. government. Like any asset, it has a present value that depends on three factors:

• • Probability of recovery — How likely are you to get paid?
• • Recovery rate — What percentage of your claim will you actually receive?
• • Timing — When will the cash arrive?

The Supreme Court answered the legal question decisively (6-3). The government will owe this money. But the practical questions — how much, when, and through what mechanism — remain uncertain. That uncertainty is what creates the discount, and the opportunity.

Why Buyers Are Interested

Litigation finance funds and specialty buyers are already evaluating IEEPA refund claims. From their perspective:

• • The legal risk is minimal — SCOTUS has spoken
• • The counterparty is the U.S. government — they will pay eventually
• • The only real risk is timing and magnitude
• • At a sufficient discount, this is an attractive risk-adjusted return

Buyer offers will vary significantly depending on claim characteristics, filing status, and their own cost of capital. Knowing your claim's fair value before taking a meeting is critical.

The Case for Selling

• Certainty. Cash today eliminates all execution risk. No waiting for CIT proceedings, no worrying about congressional action, no dependence on CBP processing speed.
• Working capital. If those duties strained your cash position, recovering even 50 cents now may be more valuable than 100 cents in three years.
• Concentration risk. A large refund claim is a single-asset bet against the U.S. government. Diversification argues for taking guaranteed money.
• Time value. Depending on your cost of capital, the present value discount for a multi-year wait can be substantial. The discount for waiting is real.

The Case for Holding

• Full recovery is the most likely single outcome. Based on our scenario analysis, the probability-weighted outcome favors holding in most cases. You may be selling at a discount to avoid a risk that's more likely than not to resolve in your favor.
• Interest accrues. Under 19 USC §1505, you earn interest on refunded duties. This upside — which can be substantial — disappears if you sell.
• The government always pays. Unlike a corporate defendant that might go bankrupt, the U.S. Treasury is the counterparty. The question isn't if but when.
• Information asymmetry. If sophisticated buyers are offering 50 cents, they've calculated that the expected value is higher. You're selling your edge.

The Decision Framework

The math is straightforward: if the offer exceeds the expected present value of holding, sell. If not, hold.

The expected value depends on your specific situation — claim size, entry liquidation status, filing posture, and your own cost of capital. There is no universal answer.

What you need is a model that accounts for all seven plausible scenarios, probability-weights them, and discounts to present value at your actual cost of capital. Then you compare that number to whatever offer is on the table.

Key Factors That Affect Your Claim Value

• % of entries unliquidated: Unliquidated entries have the cleanest refund path. The ratio materially affects your claim's present value.
• Filing status: Claims backed by active filings are worth significantly more than those without. If you haven't filed, your claim is discounted substantially.
• Your cost of capital: This single variable can change the sell/hold answer entirely.
• Political risk tolerance: How comfortable are you with an extended timeline?

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or tax advice. Consult qualified counsel before making decisions about your tariff refund claims.