What CBP’s Cooperative Filing Really Means — And What DOJ Might Do Next

CBP Filed a Plan, Not a Protest

At today’s closed conference before Judge Eaton, Customs and Border Protection filed a detailed response to the court’s universal refund order. The headline was that CBP said it “cannot currently comply” and needs 45 days to build new technology.

But read the filing carefully and you’ll notice something striking: CBP did not contest a single element of the court’s order on the merits.

They didn’t argue:

• • That refunds aren’t owed
• • That the order is too broad
• • That non-litigant importers should be excluded
• • That a stay is warranted
• • That the court lacks jurisdiction

What they said, in essence, was: “We accept the obligation. We’re building the infrastructure to fulfill it. Give us 45 days.”

That is compliance with a timeline negotiation — not resistance.

The Numbers Tell a Story

CBP’s filing disclosed the full scope of the refund obligation for the first time:

• • $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs collected and estimated duty deposits
• • 330,000+ importers affected
• • 53 million+ entries to process
• • 54 million+ individual refunds under the current manual system

An agency preparing to fight would not have volunteered this level of operational detail. An agency preparing to comply would. CBP is essentially telling the court: “Here’s the scale of what you’ve asked us to do, here’s our plan to do it, and here’s how long it will take.”

They even quantified the efficiency of their proposed solution — 4 million employee hours saved by building automated ACE functionality versus manual processing. That’s the language of implementation planning, not litigation posturing.

The CBP vs. DOJ Split

This is where it gets interesting. There are two voices that matter for importers, and they may not be saying the same thing.

This split is not unusual. CBP is a customs agency — their job is to collect and refund duties. They follow court orders because that’s what operational agencies do. DOJ is the administration’s legal arm — their job is to preserve executive authority and fight adverse rulings when politically expedient.

The question isn’t whether CBP will comply. The question is whether DOJ will try to stop them.

What a DOJ Appeal Would Look Like

If DOJ decides to fight, here’s the likely playbook:

1. File a notice of appeal of Judge Eaton’s March 4 order to the Federal Circuit. This preserves their right to challenge the universal scope of the refund order.
2. Request an emergency stay — asking the Federal Circuit to freeze refund payments while the appeal is decided. This is the critical motion. If granted, refunds stop. If denied, they continue.
3. Argue scope, not substance. DOJ likely wouldn’t challenge the underlying obligation (SCOTUS already decided that). They’d challenge whether Eaton had authority to order universal refunds versus requiring individual lawsuits — essentially trying to slow the process by forcing 330,000 importers to file separately.

Why a Stay Is Unlikely

For a stay pending appeal, DOJ would need to demonstrate:

• • Likelihood of success on appeal. Hard to argue when SCOTUS ruled 6-3 that the tariffs are illegal and the Federal Circuit unanimously denied their last delay request.
• • Irreparable harm if refunds proceed. The government would need to argue that paying money it clearly owes — to 330,000 importers who were illegally taxed — causes irreparable harm. That’s a difficult argument before a court that has already said “forthwith.”
• • Balance of equities. Importers who were illegally taxed and are accruing interest on government-owed money versus a government that is building the tech to comply. The equities clearly favor the importers.

The Federal Circuit has already shown its hand. All 11 judges — including the 4 who originally sided with the government on the merits — voted to deny the delay. That signal doesn’t change in two weeks.

The Two Scenarios

In both scenarios, the money is coming. The question is whether it arrives in Q2 or Q3. That’s a meaningful difference for cash flow, but it’s not the kind of existential uncertainty that existed even a month ago.

What to Watch For

Over the next 7–14 days, these are the signals that will tell you which scenario is playing out:

• • DOJ notice of appeal. If filed by mid-March, they’re fighting. If no filing by March 20, Scenario A is overwhelmingly likely.
• • Emergency stay motion. If DOJ appeals, this is the filing that matters. Without a stay, the appeal doesn’t slow anything down.
• • Judge Eaton’s response to CBP’s 45-day request. Eaton could accept the timeline, shorten it, or add conditions. His response will set the operational clock.
• • CBP ACE Portal updates. Watch for announcements about new refund processing functionality. When you see CBP publishing guidance to importers about how to receive refunds, you’ll know it’s real.

What You Should Do Right Now

Regardless of which scenario plays out, every importer should be doing the same three things today:

1. Enroll in the ACE Portal if you haven’t already. This is how CBP will process your refund. No enrollment = no payment.
2. Submit ACH banking details to CBP. Electronic refunds only. As of February 6, 2026, this is mandatory.
3. Pull your entry report and identify all IEEPA-related entries (HTS codes beginning with 9903.01). Know your total exposure down to the penny.

The refund machine is being built. Make sure you’re in line when it starts paying out.